post-quantum cryptography / shor's algorithm / harvest now decrypt later

Researchers from Google, UC Berkeley, the Ethereum Foundation and Stanford published a paper claiming a major efficiency gain in Shor’s algorithm: a quantum circuit that can factor 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography using under 1,200 logical qubits and roughly 90 million gates — about a 20x reduction in memory compared with a prior result. That would map to ~500,000 physical qubits depending on error-correction and architecture, far above today’s largest devices (IBM’s Condor has ~1,121 physical qubits). Rather than releasing the circuit, the team provided a zero-knowledge proof that they know such a circuit, citing abuse risk. The work narrows the practical gap to quantum attacks on ECC but remains infeasible on current hardware.

Google and Cloudflare accelerated their post-quantum cryptography (PQC) readiness targets to 2029 after new research suggested cryptographically relevant quantum computing (CRQC) could arrive sooner than expected. The move nudges peers like Amazon and Microsoft—which have longer timelines—to speed up transitions away from RSA and elliptic-curve algorithms vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm. Experts cite the 2010 Flame incident, which exploited MD5 collisions in update signing, as a warning about lingering cryptographic weaknesses. US agencies also push timelines: the Defense Department mandates quantum-safe algorithms by 2031 and NIST calls for deprecation by 2035. Cryptographers warn the Internet-wide migration, especially for digital signatures, is massive but prudent risk management.

Researchers and major tech firms are accelerating the push toward post-quantum cryptography (PQC) as quantum computing advances threaten today’s internet encryption. The article notes that widely used public-key systems RSA and elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) could be broken by quantum algorithms, and cites efficiency gains: Oratomic reportedly improved Shor’s algorithm to require fewer qubits, while Google made ECC-breaking algorithms more efficient. With Google, Microsoft, and IBM racing to build larger quantum computers, the feasibility of these attacks is moving closer. In response, Google has set a 2029 timeline for adopting PQC, and Cloudflare says it is rolling PQC across its global network. The piece also highlights “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks and says experts estimate RSA-breaking quantum machines may arrive in 10–15 years.

Quantum advances and algorithmic improvements are accelerating the timeline for practical threats to current public-key cryptography, driving an urgent need for post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Researchers and startups (Oratomic) and major tech firms (Google, Microsoft, IBM) have improved quantum attacks — including more efficient versions of Shor’s algorithm — while cloud providers like Google and Cloudflare are planning PQC rollouts (Google targeting 2029). The article warns of Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) threats where adversaries collect encrypted data today to decrypt once quantum hardware is available, posing special risk to governments and businesses with long-lived secrets. It urges faster adoption of PQC and points to tools and resources for checking and learning more.